Volatility and the Doubling Backgammon Strategy

Not all backgammon games are alike. In some games one backgammon player takes the lead and maintains it all the way. In other backgammon games fortunes swing each way. Such games are said to have high backgammon volatility. The question often asked is what should be the backgammon strategy for using the backgammon doubling cube in games of high backgammon volatility.

The general backgammon strategy is to use the backgammon doubling cube when the opponent does not have a clear take or drop decision. Assume that the backgammon player is in a favourable position and wants to use the backgammon doubling cube. He assesses that after two moves his position would in all probability remain the same, that is he is in a situation of low backgammon volatility. The backgammon player can therefore delay the doubling decision by two moves without any change in equity.

Now assume that the backgammon player is in a situation of high backgammon volatility. After two moves he would be either almost sure to win or would yield significant advantage to his opponent. What would happen if the backgammon player doubled after two moves? In the first case the opponent would drop and concede the game. In the second case the opponent would take and be in a stronger position. In either case the opponent has a clear decision and hence the backgammon player would not double after two moves. Hence in a situation of high backgammon volatility the correct backgammon strategy is to double immediately.

In games of high backgammon volatility some players are averse to risk taking and therefore do not use the backgammon doubling cube. This is poor backgammon strategy. If the backgammon player does not double his opponent will and force him to take a decision involving high risk.